Judders

The earth shook last night and we have an uneasy feeling that with silver now above $19, a rest is due. We will take another small profit for another great month.

Short Term Top

We mentioned at the end of last month that $17.50 could signify a slightly overbought level. The last few days have also shown signs of caution. With such terrific gains in Dec and Jan, combined with more gains already in Feb, we are going to take the opportunity for a small profit-take. We see two possibilities at this juncture, further gains with a pull-back to $17.00 or profit-taking to betwen $15.50-15.00. Either way protection at this point seems sensible.

Silver Jan Month Close

Performance


Silver ($/ounce) Month End : 16.74 +13.3% per month
Silver Fund (Jan) : +45% month
FTSE 100 Month End : 5880 -8.9% per month
FTSE 100 Fund (Jan) : +78% month
Gold ($/ounce) Month End : 923 +10.1% per month

The price of silver is a one way ticket at the moment. We half expected a full 1/2 point off the interest rates earlier today, that could have stoked the furnace of the silver price to an overbought level. As it is with the 1/4 point cut, we appear to be trundling down the tracks at a steady pace. Above $17.50 at the end of the month may cause some reflection and falls below $15.00 will have to be watched.